The death of North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Il, has sent shock waves throughout the world. But analysts play down fears of turbulence in the nuclear-armed country. They say, a well-planned succession is underway there.
The official announcement on Monday (12/19/2011) in North Korean media, which revealed Kim's death two days earlier at age 69, according to some analysts, makes clear that his youngest son who was also his successor is Jong-Un had been in power - at least for now.
South Korea has ordered its military to guard, but when the conversation turned to the threat of war, President Lee Myung-Bak to ask people to remain calm. "I think there will be no turbulence or directly in the internal political turmoil in North Korea or foreign affairs," said Paik Hak-Soon of thin-thank institutes Seoul, Sejong Institute.
North Korean media has asked the country's people to follow the leadership of Jong-Un. The state news agency was calling him a "great successor". "All party members, civil servants and the people have remained faithful to the guidance of Kim Jong-Un and gentlemen," the agency said.
Analysts state that alone, which has long worried the international community with its nuclear capabilities and his actions erratic, ignoring concerns about the power struggles that occur directly or military coup. "(The announcement of death) clearly shows that Jong-Un is definitely in power, and all the key officials under the Kim Jong-Il has been decided during the last two days since the death of Kim Jong-Un to support the new leader," said Paik .
"The top North Korean officials have cleared everything, and the regime appears to be stable under a new leader. I do not expect any fluctuation or power struggles within the regime's future. The era of Kim Jong-Un has already begun," said Paik.
So far, only little is known about Kim Jong-Un, a Swiss-educated youth who are now expected to extend the Kim dynasty into a third generation. He is known only in their 20s end. Profile only slightly known to the public until his father suffered a stroke in 2008, which forced an accelerated succession plan. In September 2010 he was given a senior position in the ruling party and given the rank of four-star general, though he was little military experience. Since then, he has been constantly at his side.
Sister Kim Jong-il, Kim Kyong-Hui and her husband Jang Song-Thaek, pemipin unofficial number two country, it is hoped will act as a mentor and support the leadership of Jong-Un.
Baek Seung-Joo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis said that North Korea has fully prepared for the death of Kim since a stroke in August 2008. "For a while, the military and the family will strive to support Kim Jong-Un Kim as their leader and unite around him," said Baek.
But the young leader, who headed into the position with little experience and a number of challenges including severe food shortages, are not expected to take an ambitious agenda. "Kim Jong-Un is not expected to make drastic policy changes when trying to glue his leadership. He will try to share power or to build a strategic alliance with military leaders," said Baek.
"A power struggle may be in the future, which would create barriers to succession as Jong-Un did not actually pocket the full support of the public," he said. He added that the lack of popular support makes it vulnerable.
Kim Tae-Hyun, a professor at Chung-Ang University in Seoul, agreed that the son of Kim Jong-Il seems to have been in power with military support and the party - and that the regime has an interest in maintaining the status quo.
North Korea's relations with South Korea have chilled since two deadly border incidents are blamed on North Korea last year. But Paik said the new leadership was not possible to take a confrontational approach against his old enemy the United States and South Korea, at least for some time. "The country needs a lot of help and daily needs to be given to people in politics mark the anniversary of the year 2012," said Paik. He referred to the 100th anniversary of the birth of the country's founding president, Kim Il-Sung.
News Kim Jong-Il's death comes amid intense diplomatic efforts to revive six-party talks North Korea's nuclear program. "Regarding the nuclear talks, the North will also likely take a more cooperative attitude to get what they want," says Paek. "They will probably progress to renew negotiations with the U.S. after the mourning period is over."
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